US President Donald Trump delayed enforcement of the TikTok sale-or-ban order for 75 additional days last Friday, one day before it was set to take effect. The extension follows Trump’s earlier tariff announcement that reportedly disrupted a pending deal to transfer the app’s US operations to American owners. ByteDance later claimed on Weibo that the company is still in talks with the US government and has not yet reached any agreement.

Why it matters: The delay highlights the ongoing uncertainty surrounding TikTok’s future in the US and the broader geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing. Trump has linked the deal with tariff negotiations, adding a new layer of complexity and making clear this is not a simple tech transaction but a bargaining chip in US-China trade relations.

Details: Trump announced the delay on his social platform, Truth Social, stating that his administration has been working hard to secure an agreement to “save TikTok” and has “made significant progress,” but the TikTok deal “requires more work to ensure all necessary approvals are signed.” The delay will allow TikTok to operate for another 75 days, pushing its deadline for a sale or closure in the US to mid-June.

• Earlier, CNN reported that a deal led by the Trump administration to split TikTok’s US operations into a new company – with US investors holding a majority stake and ByteDance retaining less than 19.9% to comply with the law – was “basically finalized” on Wednesday.
• “We had a deal pretty much for TikTok – not a deal but pretty close – and then China changed the deal because of tariffs,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One as he returned to Washington after a long weekend in Florida. “If I gave a little cut in tariffs they would have approved that deal in 15 minutes, which shows the power of tariffs.” 
• Potential TikTok investors could include Oracle and BlackRock, with Oracle currently providing most of the app’s back-end technical support. Other companies expressing interest in bidding include Amazon, former Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt, and the founder of OnlyFans.

Context: Last year, former US President Joe Biden enacted a law that forced ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company based in China, to sell its stake in the app or face a ban in the US over national security concerns. The law was scheduled to take effect in January, but Trump announced a delay in its enforcement, hoping to negotiate a deal to keep the app operational.

Since then, Trump has stated that numerous buyers have shown “great interest” in acquiring TikTok. 

• The app, with over 170 million American users, is a highly valuable asset for any buyer looking to influence young internet users. 
• Currently, 60% of ByteDance’s ownership is held by “global institutional investors,” including BlackRock, General Atlantic Investment Group, and Susquehanna; 20% is owned by Chinese founders and 20% is owned by employees, including American staff.

TikTok has tried several approaches to resolve the stand-off over US national security concerns, including establishing a Transparency Center, creating a dedicated US data security company, USDS, to manage American user data, and implementing two projects – “Clover” for data segregation and “Texas” for data security – each costing about $1 billion annually. The company has also hired executives with American backgrounds and reached an agreement with Oracle, which will serve as TikTok’s “trusted technology provider” in the US, according to the agreement, and whereby Oracle is authorized to conduct security reviews of TikTok’s US source code. ByteDance has repeatedly stressed that its data storage is localized, with US user data managed by Oracle, and that there is no evidence of security risks, though this defense has gained little traction among US politicians.

On the second day after the ban, and the day before the new president’s inauguration, TikTok became accessible to users again, having effectively been shut down for just 14 hours. The fiasco leaves one big question: will TikTok stay for good?

Why it matters: TikTok’s return to operation after its ban, though brief, raises larger questions about its future in the US. As one of the world’s most popular apps, TikTok’s business model, its relationship with global users, and its ownership structure have come under intense scrutiny. The app’s survival hinges on a combination of political maneuvering, legal challenges, and complex  dynamics between US and Chinese interests. The app has become a focal point of broader geopolitical tensions, leaving its future anything but assured.

Details: After being shut down for about 14 hours, TikTok was revived on Sunday and thanked Trump for assuring TikTok and its business partners that they would not face hefty fines for keeping the app running. The app began operating again on Monday, but TikTok was still unavailable for download in the Apple and Google app stores. Trump also stated on social media platform X that he would sign an order to “save” the software. So, what does saving TikTok entail?

• Despite Trump’s signing of an order delaying the ban for 75 days, the legality of his executive order to “save TikTok” is unclear, according to the Economic Times, since the law requiring divestiture was passed by large majorities in Congress, signed by President Joe Biden, and upheld by a unanimous Supreme Court.
• When announcing plans to sign an order to save TikTok, Trump demanded that the US hold 50% ownership. However, TikTok states that it is already 60% owned by global institutional investors, such as BlackRock, General Atlantic, and Susquehanna International Group, with an additional 20% owned by its employees, including over 7,000 US-based workers.
• In addition to TikTok, other banned software such as Lemon8 and CapCut, owned by TikTok’s parent company ByteDance, were also prohibited last Sunday. 
• According to lawyers knowledgeable about US laws, if TikTok were to remain in the country long-term, the Supreme Court would need to re-legislate, a process that would be extremely lengthy.

Context: The TikTok ban debate in the US stems from national security concerns, driven by allegations that the app could potentially allow the Chinese government to access US user data. In response, then-President Trump signed executive orders aimed at banning the app unless it was sold to a US company. At the beginning of his second term, he made an about-turn to become a proponent of keeping the app, positioning himself as the only person with the potential to put into effect meaningful change.

According to a report by the Information yesterday, TikTok plans to fully shut down its app in the United States on Sunday, Jan. 19, unless the US Supreme Court intervenes to block the ban. On the same day, Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey announced the introduction of a bill that would extend the ban or sale deadline by 270 days, his office said in a statement. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is also reportedly exploring ways to keep TikTok available in the US on Sunday.

Why it matters: The proposed delay to the ban reflects the US’s conflicted stance on TikTok. Whether or not the ban is delayed, millions of users will be affected as policy uncertainty impacts operations, with the outcome of the latest move potentially serving as  pivotal in a case that has implications for the future development of large multinational tech companies.

Details: The ban does not require TikTok to shut down its app but instead mandates that app store operators like Apple and Google stop offering TikTok for download. It also requires TikTok’s cloud service provider, Oracle, to cease hosting its US user data. However, Tiktok owner ByteDance has a different plan in mind.

• The TikTok app will be shut down entirely rather than remain operational in already-downloaded versions, according to the Information. Users who attempt to open the app will see a pop-up message directing them to a website explaining the ban. According to a source familiar with the matter, TikTok also plans to offer users an option to download their personal data to retain their records.
• The upcoming Sunday deadline is also putting pressure on TikTok’s US employees. According to The Verge, TikTok executives are preparing for various scenarios. In an internal memo, employees were informed that the company is continuing to plan its next steps ahead of an expected court ruling. The memo stated: “ Our offices will remain open, even if this situation hasn’t been resolved before the January 19 deadline. The bill is not written in a way that impacts the entities through which you are employed, only the US user experience.”
• Not everyone wants to see TikTok become immediately inaccessible. Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey proposed a delay to the TikTok ban deadline less than a week before it was set to take effect. Meanwhile, both the Biden and Trump administrations have been reportedly exploring solutions to save TikTok, despite earlier supporting the ban.

Context: Although this is not the first time TikTok has faced a ban in a country, the prolonged standoff has triggered a ripple effect.

• The Indian government outlawed the app in June 2020, citing worries about data privacy and national security. India was the largest market for TikTok before the India ban.
• In October last year, Malaysia stated that TikTok was not fully compliant with its laws.
• In November, as the US TikTok ban sparked widespread debate, the Canadian federal government ordered TikTok to shut down its corporate offices in Toronto and Vancouver, citing national security concerns.
• Facing the loss of their digital community, TikTok users in the US are flocking to another Chinese social media platform, Xiaohongshu (also known as the RedNote), both to protest the Supreme Court’s decision and in curiosity at the platform’s unique appeal.
• As Xiaohongshu experienced a surge in international users, significant numbers of US users were encouraged to learn Mandarin – a potential outcome lawmakers behind the ban may not have anticipated.

On the evening of January 13, Chinese lifestyle sharing platform Xiaohongshu (also referred as RedNote) unexpectedly climbed to the top of the US Apple App Store’s free chart. This surge was driven by a sudden influx of American users—many of whom are self-identified as “TikTok refugees.” On January 13, the hashtag “TikTokRefugee” had only around 2,000 posts and 390,000 views. By the morning of the next day, the number of posts under the hashtag had skyrocketed to over 70,000, with total views surpassing 27 million. And the numbers continue to rise. These American users have expressed their hopes that Xiaohongshu’s platform and community will welcome them with open arms.

For Xiaohongshu, this shift to internationalization, a goal many companies take decades to achieve, appears to have happened overnight. But as with any sudden growth, the path ahead is full of uncertainty.

Not US Social Media

This phenomenon stems from the ongoing TikTok ban saga. On January 10, the US Supreme Court accelerated hearings on the proposed TikTok ban, weighing whether the short-video platform should be forced to sell or face a nationwide ban. After a session of oral arguments, a majority of the justices made it clear that national security concerns outweigh freedom of speech, and the ban was upheld.

While the ban’s outcome was widely expected, most experts speculated that American social media platforms such as Meta’s Instagram, X (formerly Twitter), or YouTube Shorts would benefit from TikTok’s potential downfall. However, to everyone’s surprise, even before the ban was enforced, the real winner wasn’t one of these platforms—it was Xiaohongshu, a Chinese app known for lifestyle sharing. While TikTok users flocking to Xiaohongshu might seem like a coincidence, it could also be a sign that the app’s community atmosphere and culture have already captured the attention of users beyond China.

Why not Douyin?

Given that TikTok is the international counterpart to China’s Douyin, why are these “TikTok refugees” choosing Xiaohongshu instead of Douyin? The answer lies in accessibility. Douyin and TikTok operate on different servers and content pools in various countries. While international users can register for Douyin using a global phone number, they can’t simply download it from the US App Store—they’d need to switch to the Chinese App Store. This process is considerably complex and inconvenient for casual users.

On the other hand, Xiaohongshu was built with international users in mind from the start. Originally focused on cross-border shopping experiences, Xiaohongshu operates a global content pool, allowing users from different regions to communicate seamlessly. This has made the app easy to download and use directly from the US App Store, without any regional barriers.

Will Xiaohongshu fully embrace globalization?

This isn’t the first time Xiaohongshu has experienced a surge of international users. In early 2024, a trend called “foreigners take advice” emerged on the platform, where international users posted pictures of themselves holding signs asking for beauty advice. Despite the initial excitement, a report by ifeng.com noted that the increase in daily active users (DAU) from this trend wasn’t significant. The reason is clear: Xiaohongshu’s core community is still largely Chinese, and the app hasn’t yet tailored its content for American audiences. The language barrier, cultural differences, and lack of content suited to US users make it challenging for them to fully integrate into the platform. Some users have turned to translation tools, but the experience isn’t optimal, and it’s unlikely to build long-term engagement.

A Xiaohongshu insider told ifeng.com, the app has always been designed with Chinese-language content in mind and hasn’t yet been adapted for international audiences. This presents a natural hurdle for expanding globally.

Additionally, since 2016, China has enforced a real-name registration policy for apps, which means that while Xiaohongshu doesn’t require users to verify their identity or use a Chinese phone number to register, future regulatory changes could affect the app’s ability to scale internationally.

Gen Z’s outlet of TikTok ban

This trend was initiated by the TikTok ban, which, when we look back, becomes an outlet for TikTok users to vent their frustration about the restrictions. While conservatism and anti-globalization sentiments may be on the rise, Gen Z users, who were raised in a globalization tendency, are making their voice heard. John Wihbey, an associate professor of media innovation and technology at Northeastern University, shared his insights on how the TikTok ban might affect the US with TechNode. While also concerning national security,  Wihbey admits TikTok’s importance for American young users, as he sees his students use the app all the time. “Just like a big catalytic event that happened when they were young and it sort of formed identity and politics,” Wihbey said, “banning TikTok could in some ways be very impactful for young people in the United States, and over time, it will have some unknowable consequences–I don’t know what that is. However, it’s possible that generation forms a more cyber libertarian worldview. It’s possible that they go in a different direction because they see these old people kind of imposing on their space in a way that they find quite damaging and irrational.”

“There’s a generational tension here that I think at the level of culture and politics (which) could be very consequential (, but it) may take decades to play out. But it strikes me as the kind of thing that people sometimes remember,” said Wihbey. “It sort of strikes at the heart of where young people are right now because TikTok is so important in terms of cultural communication, fun, entertainment, understanding, memes, virality, you know, so many of the trends of the generation pass through that app. And so to kill it off, I think would be quite profound. It is potentially profoundly damaging. I think they will perceive it as that.”